Impact of war on terror on economy

Muhammad Zahid Rifat

Despite the ongoing conflict and persisting instability in neighboring Afghanistan that has been , quite unfortunately, an impediment to regional peace and development, Pakistan has been achieving progressive and quite significant improvement in the country’s overall security landscape in recent years.
This has been accomplished largely due to successful counter-terrorism efforts of the Federal Government, in close coordination and cooperation of the provincial governments, under the unanimously and comprehensively formulated National Action Plan (NAP), backed by an extensive and highly effective counter-terrorism operation Zarb-e-Azb by the armed forces, and actions by other security and law enforcement agencies and intelligence-based operations across the country. After successful completion of Zarb-e-Azb, another country-wide operation Raddul Fassad has since been launched and is in progress, as effectively and forcefully as the previous operations, for eliminating any residual or latent threats and desired objectives and results are being achieved accordingly.
Due to the ongoing war in Afghanistan, Pakistan has been and continues to face the most serious consequences from political to security,socio-economic and environmental, over the decades. From hosting millions of Afghan refugees to being a major victim of terrorism, militancy and extremism, the cumulative impact on Pakistan has been enormous, with adverse overall growth rate in all major sectors of the national economy. Normal economic and trading activities were obviously greatly disrupted, resulting in higher costs of doing business including cost of insurance and significance delays in meeting and delivering the export orders from across the world. Resultantly, Pakistani products had gradually lost their share to their competitors in the international market. Furthermore, economic growth also slowed down and could not be accelerated at the planned and desired pace during the last decade or so.
Quite unfortunately, Pakistan continues to be target of terrorism, extremism and militancy including foreign-sponsored terrorism from its immediate neighbourhood. A substantial portion of precious national resources, both men and material, had to be diverted to address the pressing security challenges and to repair and rehabilitate the damaged infrastructure during the last many years. In addition to heaving economic losses, Pakistan has been inflicted and continues to suffer untold human sufferings resulting from indiscriminate, brutal and ruthless attacks against its civilian population here, there and everywhere every now and then.
In this backdrop, success in counter-terrorism has played a critical role in creating a conducive economic environment results of which have since started appearing in terms of growth across different segments of the national economy.
Pakistan’s success in countering terrorism has also been duly acknowledged in the recent Global Terrorism Index Report 2017 published by the Sydney –based Institute for Economics and Peace.
According to this report, Pakistan ranks at number 5 out of 163 countries with a score of 8.4 out of 10 on the Index, indicating a marked improvement as it had ranked number 4 in 2007. Pakistan has shown improvement in its global terrorism index ranking with decline in the terrorism incidences and the deaths related to the terrorist activities. This ,2017-18, is the third consecutive year that Pakistan has witnessed fewer terrorist attacks and deaths.
Along with Pakistan, a positive trend has also been noted in Afghanistan, Nigeria and Syria.
The current developments in Pakistan ‘s fight against terrorism are benchmarks for not just regional countries but also for the international community as well. While Pakistan is quite successfully fighting the terrorists in all their manifestations without any discrimination whatsoever on its soil, it also genuinely expects the US, NATO and Afghan forces to do the same in Afghanistan.
However, Pakistan continues to be a target of terrorism, including state-sponsored sponsored terrorism from its immediate neighbours, The persistent conflict and instability in Afghanistan in fact, in all fairness, remains an impediment for regional peace, security and development. Because of its proximity and historical connection, Pakistan faces the most serious consequences of war in Afghanistan ranging from security to socio-economic progress and development. Furthermore, hosting of millions of Afghan refugees, for decades together, has not only burdened Pakistan’s economy but also put additional stress on its internal security situation. . Pakistan continues to face terrorist attacks from across the border terrorist hide-outs in Afghanistan.
As a result of these constant efforts, the total losses being incurred by the country due to incidents of terrorism, militancy and extremism are gradually declining. The direct and indirect losses to the national economy are accordingly been gradually declining also.
The success in counter-terrorism has played quite appreciably a critical role in creating a conducive economic environment results of which have started appearing in terms of growth across various sectors of national economy.
According to facts and figures available from various official sources concerned, as a resulted of these concerted and determined efforts, the total losses incurred, both fiscal as well as human, have started declining considerably appreciably.
It had declined by 15.7 per cent during 2016-17 over the corresponding period of last year while it has further declined during July 2017-February 2018 by as much as 62.2 per cent which clearly reflects the effectiveness of the federal and provincial governments , armed forces and security and law and order related agencies closely coordinated efforts to eliminate terrorism, militancy and extremism from the sacred soil of motherland, Pakistan.
In order to have more or less complete assessment of the incidents of terrorism, militancy and extremism on the national economy of Pakistan during the past several years, the estimates for FY 2017 have been updated and FY 2018 have also been prepared on the basis of relevant facts and figures from all concerned Federal Ministries and Divisions and Departments, Provincial Governments of Punjab, Sindh, Khyber Pukhtoonkhwah and Balochistan , autonomous bodies.
During last less than two years i.e.FY 2017 and July 2016 and FY 2018 (up to February 2018), the accumulated losses worked out are 7543.32 million dollars including much higher amount of 5468.89 million dollars in 2016-17 and much reduced 2074.43 million dollars during July 2017 to February 2018 on account of compensation to the affectees, physical infrastructure , foreign investment, privatization, industrial output, tax collection, cost of uncertainty, expenditure over-run and others.
During the last 17 years ever-since Pakistan was forced in the war on terror, the direct and indirect very huge costs incurred by the country and its people due to incidents of terrorism, militancy and extremism stand at 126.79 billion dollars equivalent to Rs 10,762.62 billion .
These bitter facts and figures, available from official sources concerned at the federal and provincial levels, have been presented here only keeping the people at large in the loop and not for indulging in any unpleasant discussion and debate with one or the other foreign countries around the globe, please.

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